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<div id="nav-top"><form action="../go.php" method="GET" id="nav-form-top" target="_top"><div class="nav-prev"><a href="../chapter/1" title="Chapter 1: A Day of Very Low Probability" accesskey="p" target="_top">« Prev</a></div><div class="nav-dropdown"><select name="chapter" class="nav-select">
<option value="home">Home</option>
<option value="1">Chapter 1: A Day of Very Low Probability</option>
<option value="2" selected>Chapter 2: Everything I Believe Is False</option>
<option value="3">Chapter 3: Comparing Reality To Its Alternatives</option>
<option value="4">Chapter 4: The Efficient Market Hypothesis</option>
<option value="5">Chapter 5: The Fundamental Attribution Error</option>
<option value="6">Chapter 6: The Planning Fallacy</option>
<option value="7">Chapter 7: Reciprocation</option>
<option value="8">Chapter 8: Positive Bias</option>
<option value="9">Chapter 9: Title Redacted, Part I</option>
<option value="10">Chapter 10: Self Awareness, Part II</option>
<option value="11">Chapter 11: Omake Files 1, 2, 3</option>
<option value="12">Chapter 12: Impulse Control</option>
<option value="13">Chapter 13: Asking the Wrong Questions</option>
<option value="14">Chapter 14: The Unknown and the Unknowable</option>
<option value="15">Chapter 15: Conscientiousness</option>
<option value="16">Chapter 16: Lateral Thinking</option>
<option value="17">Chapter 17: Locating the Hypothesis</option>
<option value="18">Chapter 18: Dominance Hierarchies</option>
<option value="19">Chapter 19: Delayed Gratification</option>
<option value="20">Chapter 20: Bayes's Theorem</option>
<option value="21">Chapter 21: Rationalization</option>
<option value="22">Chapter 22: The Scientific Method</option>
<option value="23">Chapter 23: Belief in Belief</option>
<option value="24">Chapter 24: Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis</option>
<option value="25">Chapter 25: Hold Off on Proposing Solutions</option>
<option value="26">Chapter 26: Noticing Confusion</option>
<option value="27">Chapter 27: Empathy</option>
<option value="28">Chapter 28: Reductionism</option>
<option value="29">Chapter 29: Egocentric Bias</option>
<option value="30">Chapter 30: Working in Groups, Pt 1</option>
<option value="31">Chapter 31: Working in Groups, Pt 2</option>
<option value="32">Chapter 32: Interlude: Personal Financial Management</option>
<option value="33">Chapter 33: Coordination Problems, Pt 1</option>
<option value="34">Chapter 34: Coordination Problems, Pt 2</option>
<option value="35">Chapter 35: Coordination Problems, Pt 3</option>
<option value="36">Chapter 36: Status Differentials</option>
<option value="37">Chapter 37: Interlude: Crossing the Boundary</option>
<option value="38">Chapter 38: The Cardinal Sin</option>
<option value="39">Chapter 39: Pretending to be Wise, Pt 1</option>
<option value="40">Chapter 40: Pretending to be Wise, Pt 2</option>
<option value="41">Chapter 41: Frontal Override</option>
<option value="42">Chapter 42: Courage</option>
<option value="43">Chapter 43: Humanism, Pt 1</option>
<option value="44">Chapter 44: Humanism, Pt 2</option>
<option value="45">Chapter 45: Humanism, Pt 3</option>
<option value="46">Chapter 46: Humanism, Pt 4</option>
<option value="47">Chapter 47: Personhood Theory</option>
<option value="48">Chapter 48: Utilitarian Priorities</option>
<option value="49">Chapter 49: Prior Information</option>
<option value="50">Chapter 50: Self Centeredness</option>
<option value="51">Chapter 51: Title Redacted, Pt 1</option>
<option value="52">Chapter 52: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 2</option>
<option value="53">Chapter 53: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 3</option>
<option value="54">Chapter 54: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 4</option>
<option value="55">Chapter 55: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 5</option>
<option value="56">Chapter 56: TSPE, Constrained Optimization, Pt 6</option>
<option value="57">Chapter 57: TSPE, Constrained Cognition, Pt 7</option>
<option value="58">Chapter 58: TSPE, Constrained Cognition, Pt 8</option>
<option value="59">Chapter 59: TSPE, Curiosity, Pt 9</option>
<option value="60">Chapter 60: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 10</option>
<option value="61">Chapter 61: TSPE, Secrecy and Openness, Pt 11</option>
<option value="62">Chapter 62: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Final</option>
<option value="63">Chapter 63: TSPE, Aftermaths</option>
<option value="64">Chapter 64: Omake Files 4, Alternate Parallels</option>
<option value="65">Chapter 65: Contagious Lies</option>
<option value="66">Chapter 66: Self Actualization, Pt 1</option>
<option value="67">Chapter 67: Self Actualization, Pt 2</option>
<option value="68">Chapter 68: Self Actualization, Pt 3</option>
<option value="69">Chapter 69: Self Actualization, Pt 4</option>
<option value="70">Chapter 70: Self Actualization, Pt 5</option>
<option value="71">Chapter 71: Self Actualization, Pt 6</option>
<option value="72">Chapter 72: SA, Plausible Deniability, Pt 7</option>
<option value="73">Chapter 73: SA, The Sacred and the Mundane, Pt 8</option>
<option value="74">Chapter 74: SA, Escalation of Conflicts, Pt 9</option>
<option value="75">Chapter 75: Self Actualization Final, Responsibility</option>
<option value="76">Chapter 76: Interlude with the Confessor: Sunk Costs</option>
<option value="77">Chapter 77: SA, Aftermaths: Surface Appearances</option>
<option value="78">Chapter 78: Taboo Tradeoffs Prelude: Cheating</option>
<option value="79">Chapter 79: Taboo Tradeoffs, Pt 1</option>
<option value="80">Chapter 80: Taboo Tradeoffs, Pt 2, The Horns Effect</option>
<option value="81">Chapter 81: Taboo Tradeoffs, Pt 3</option>
<option value="82">Chapter 82: Taboo Tradeoffs, Final</option>
<option value="83">Chapter 83: Taboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath 1</option>
<option value="84">Chapter 84: Taboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath 2</option>
<option value="85">Chapter 85: Taboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath 3, Distance</option>
<option value="86">Chapter 86: Multiple Hypothesis Testing</option>
<option value="87">Chapter 87: Hedonic Awareness</option>
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<div id="chapter-title">Chapter 2: Everything I Believe Is
False<br /></div>
<div style='' class='storycontent' id='storycontent'>
<p>#include "stddisclaimer.h"</p>
<hr size="1" noshade="noshade" />
<p><i>"Of course it was my fault. There's no one else here who
could be responsible for anything."</i></p>
<hr size="1" noshade="noshade" />
<p>"Now, just to be clear," Harry said, "if the professor does
levitate you, Dad, when you know you haven't been attached to any
wires, that's going to be sufficient evidence. You're not going to
turn around and say that it's a magician's trick. That wouldn't be
fair play. If you feel that way, you should say so <i>now</i>, and
we can figure out a different experiment instead."</p>
<p>Harry's father, Professor Michael Verres-Evans, rolled his eyes.
"Yes, Harry."</p>
<p>"And you, Mum, your theory says that the professor should be
able to do this, and if that doesn't happen, you'll admit you're
mistaken. Nothing about how magic doesn't work when people are
sceptical of it, or anything like that."</p>
<p>Deputy Headmistress Minerva McGonagall was watching Harry with a
bemused expression. She looked quite witchy in her black robes and
pointed hat, but when she spoke she sounded formal and Scottish,
which didn't go together with the look at all. At first glance she
looked like someone who ought to cackle and put babies into
cauldrons, but the whole effect was ruined as soon as she opened
her mouth. "Is that sufficient, Mr. Potter?" she said. "Shall I go
ahead and demonstrate?"</p>
<p>"<i>Sufficient?</i> Probably not," Harry said. "But at least it
will <i>help.</i> Go ahead, Deputy Headmistress."</p>
<p>"Just Professor will do," said she, and then, "<i>Wingardium
Leviosa</i>."</p>
<p>Harry looked at his father.</p>
<p>"Huh," Harry said.</p>
<p>His father looked back at him. "Huh," his father echoed.</p>
<p>Then Professor Verres-Evans looked back at Professor McGonagall.
"All right, you can put me down now."</p>
<p>His father was lowered carefully to the ground.</p>
<p>Harry ruffled a hand through his own hair. Maybe it was just
that strange part of him which had <i>already</i> been convinced,
but... "That's a bit of an anticlimax," Harry said. "You'd think
there'd be some kind of more dramatic mental event associated with
updating on an observation of infinitesimal probability -" Harry
stopped himself. Mum, the witch, and even his Dad were giving him
<i>that look</i> again. "I mean, with finding out that everything I
believe is false."</p>
<p>Seriously, it should have been more dramatic. His brain ought to
have been flushing its entire current stock of hypotheses about the
universe, none of which allowed this to happen. But instead his
brain just seemed to be going, <i>All right, I saw the Hogwarts
Professor wave her wand and make your father rise into the air, now
what?</i></p>
<p>The witch-lady was smiling benevolently upon them, looking quite
amused. "Would you like a further demonstration, Mr. Potter?"</p>
<p>"You don't have to," Harry said. "We've performed a definitive
experiment. But..." Harry hesitated. He couldn't help himself.
Actually, under the circumstances, he <i>shouldn't</i> be helping
himself. It was right and proper to be curious. "What else
<i>can</i> you do?"</p>
<p>Professor McGonagall turned into a cat.</p>
<p>Harry scrambled back unthinkingly, backpedalling so fast that he
tripped over a stray stack of books and landed hard on his bottom
with a <i>thwack.</i> His hands came down to catch himself without
quite reaching properly, and there was a warning twinge in his
shoulder as the weight came down unbraced.</p>
<p>At once the small tabby cat morphed back up into a robed woman.
"I'm sorry, Mr. Potter," said the witch, sounding sincere, though
the corners of her lips were twitching upwards. "I should have
warned you."</p>
<p>Harry was breathing in short gasps. His voice came out choked.
<i>"You can't DO that!"</i></p>
<p>"It's only a Transfiguration," said Professor McGonagall. "An
Animagus transformation, to be exact."</p>
<p>"You turned into a cat! A <i>SMALL</i> cat! You violated
Conservation of Energy! That's not just an arbitrary rule, it's
implied by the form of the quantum Hamiltonian! Rejecting it
destroys unitarity and then you get FTL signalling! And cats are
<i>COMPLICATED!</i> A human mind can't just visualise a whole cat's
anatomy and, and all the cat biochemistry, and what about the
<i>neurology?</i> How can you go on <i>thinking</i> using a
cat-sized brain?"</p>
<p>Professor McGonagall's lips were twitching harder now.
"Magic."</p>
<p>"Magic <i>isn't enough</i> to do that! You'd have to be a
god!"</p>
<p>Professor McGonagall blinked. "That's the first time I've ever
been called <i>that.</i>"</p>
<p>A blur was coming over Harry's vision, as his brain started to
comprehend what had just broken. The whole idea of a unified
universe with mathematically regular laws, that was what had been
flushed down the toilet; the whole notion of <i>physics</i>. Three
thousand years of resolving big complicated things into smaller
pieces, discovering that the music of the planets was the same tune
as a falling apple, finding that the true laws were perfectly
universal and had no exceptions anywhere and took the form of
simple maths governing the smallest parts, <i>not to mention</i>
that the mind was the brain and the brain was made of neurons, a
brain was what a person <i>was</i> -</p>
<p>And then a woman turned into a cat, so much for all that.</p>
<p>A hundred questions fought for priority over Harry's lips and
the winner poured out: "And, and what kind of incantation is
<i>Wingardium Leviosa?</i> Who invents the words to these spells,
nursery schoolers?"</p>
<p>"That will do, Mr. Potter," Professor McGonagall said crisply,
though her eyes shone with suppressed amusement. "If you wish to
learn about magic, I suggest that we finalise the paperwork so that
you can go to Hogwarts."</p>
<p>"Right," Harry said, somewhat dazed. He pulled his thoughts
together. The March of Reason would just have to start over, that
was all; they still had the experimental method and that was the
important thing. "How do I get to Hogwarts, then?"</p>
<p>A choked laugh escaped Professor McGonagall, as if extracted
from her by tweezers.</p>
<p>"Hold on a moment, Harry," his father said. "Remember why you
haven't been going to school up until now? What about your
condition?"</p>
<p>Professor McGonagall spun to face Michael. "His condition?
What's this?"</p>
<p>"I don't sleep right," Harry said. He waved his hands
helplessly. "My sleep cycle is twenty-six hours long, I always go
to sleep two hours later, every day. I can't fall asleep any
earlier than that, and then the next day I go to sleep two hours
later than <i>that.</i> 10PM, 12AM, 2AM, 4AM, until it goes around
the clock. Even if I try to wake up early, it makes no difference
and I'm a wreck that whole day. That's why I haven't been going to
a normal school up until now."</p>
<p>"One of the reasons," said his mother. Harry shot her a
glare.</p>
<p>McGonagall gave a long <i>hmmmmm.</i> "I can't recall hearing
about such a condition before..." she said slowly. "I'll check with
Madam Pomfrey to see if she knows any remedies." Then her face
brightened. "No, I'm sure this won't be a problem - I'll find a
solution in time. Now," and her gaze sharpened again, "what are
these <i>other</i> reasons?"</p>
<p>Harry sent his parents a glare. "I am a conscientious objector
to child conscription, on grounds that I should not have to suffer
for a disintegrating school system's failure to provide teachers or
study materials of even minimally adequate quality."</p>
<p>Both of Harry's parents howled with laughter at that, like they
thought it was all a big joke. "Oh," said Harry's father, eyes
bright, "is <i>that</i> why you bit a maths teacher in third
year."</p>
<p>"<i>She didn't know what a logarithm was!</i> "</p>
<p>"Of course," seconded Harry's mother. "Biting her was a very
mature response to that."</p>
<p>Harry's father nodded. "A well-considered policy for addressing
the problem of teachers who don't understand logarithms."</p>
<p>"I was <i>seven years old!</i> How long are you going to keep on
bringing that up?"</p>
<p>"I know," said his mother sympathetically, "you bite <i>one</i>
maths teacher and they never let you forget it, do they?"</p>
<p>Harry turned to Professor McGonagall. "There! You see what I
have to deal with?"</p>
<p>"Excuse me," said Petunia, and fled through the backdoor into
the garden, from which her screams of laughter were clearly
audible.</p>
<p>"There, ah, there," Professor McGonagall seemed to be having
trouble speaking for some reason, "there is to be no biting of
teachers at Hogwarts, is that quite clear, Mr. Potter?"</p>
<p>Harry scowled at her. "Fine, I won't bite anyone who doesn't
bite me first."</p>
<p>Professor Michael Verres-Evans also had to leave the room
briefly upon hearing that.</p>
<p>"Well," Professor McGonagall sighed, after Harry's parents had
composed themselves and returned. "Well. I think, under the
circumstances, that I should avoid taking you to purchase your
study materials until a day or two before school begins."</p>
<p>"What? Why? The other children already know magic, don't they? I
have to start catching up right away!"</p>
<p>"Rest assured, Mr. Potter," replied Professor McGonagall,
"Hogwarts is quite capable of teaching the basics. And I suspect,
Mr. Potter, that if I leave you alone for two months with your
schoolbooks, even without a wand, I will return to this house only
to find a crater billowing purple smoke, a depopulated city
surrounding it and a plague of flaming zebras terrorising what
remains of England."</p>
<p>Harry's mother and father nodded in perfect unison.</p>
<p>"<i>Mum! Dad!</i> "</p>
</div>
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<form action="../go.php" method="GET" id="nav-form-bottom" target="_top"><div class="nav-prev"><a href="../chapter/1" title="Chapter 1: A Day of Very Low Probability" target="_top">« Prev</a></div><div class="nav-dropdown"><select name="chapter" class="nav-select">
<option value="home">Home</option>
<option value="1">Chapter 1: A Day of Very Low Probability</option>
<option value="2" selected>Chapter 2: Everything I Believe Is False</option>
<option value="3">Chapter 3: Comparing Reality To Its Alternatives</option>
<option value="4">Chapter 4: The Efficient Market Hypothesis</option>
<option value="5">Chapter 5: The Fundamental Attribution Error</option>
<option value="6">Chapter 6: The Planning Fallacy</option>
<option value="7">Chapter 7: Reciprocation</option>
<option value="8">Chapter 8: Positive Bias</option>
<option value="9">Chapter 9: Title Redacted, Part I</option>
<option value="10">Chapter 10: Self Awareness, Part II</option>
<option value="11">Chapter 11: Omake Files 1, 2, 3</option>
<option value="12">Chapter 12: Impulse Control</option>
<option value="13">Chapter 13: Asking the Wrong Questions</option>
<option value="14">Chapter 14: The Unknown and the Unknowable</option>
<option value="15">Chapter 15: Conscientiousness</option>
<option value="16">Chapter 16: Lateral Thinking</option>
<option value="17">Chapter 17: Locating the Hypothesis</option>
<option value="18">Chapter 18: Dominance Hierarchies</option>
<option value="19">Chapter 19: Delayed Gratification</option>
<option value="20">Chapter 20: Bayes's Theorem</option>
<option value="21">Chapter 21: Rationalization</option>
<option value="22">Chapter 22: The Scientific Method</option>
<option value="23">Chapter 23: Belief in Belief</option>
<option value="24">Chapter 24: Machiavellian Intelligence Hypothesis</option>
<option value="25">Chapter 25: Hold Off on Proposing Solutions</option>
<option value="26">Chapter 26: Noticing Confusion</option>
<option value="27">Chapter 27: Empathy</option>
<option value="28">Chapter 28: Reductionism</option>
<option value="29">Chapter 29: Egocentric Bias</option>
<option value="30">Chapter 30: Working in Groups, Pt 1</option>
<option value="31">Chapter 31: Working in Groups, Pt 2</option>
<option value="32">Chapter 32: Interlude: Personal Financial Management</option>
<option value="33">Chapter 33: Coordination Problems, Pt 1</option>
<option value="34">Chapter 34: Coordination Problems, Pt 2</option>
<option value="35">Chapter 35: Coordination Problems, Pt 3</option>
<option value="36">Chapter 36: Status Differentials</option>
<option value="37">Chapter 37: Interlude: Crossing the Boundary</option>
<option value="38">Chapter 38: The Cardinal Sin</option>
<option value="39">Chapter 39: Pretending to be Wise, Pt 1</option>
<option value="40">Chapter 40: Pretending to be Wise, Pt 2</option>
<option value="41">Chapter 41: Frontal Override</option>
<option value="42">Chapter 42: Courage</option>
<option value="43">Chapter 43: Humanism, Pt 1</option>
<option value="44">Chapter 44: Humanism, Pt 2</option>
<option value="45">Chapter 45: Humanism, Pt 3</option>
<option value="46">Chapter 46: Humanism, Pt 4</option>
<option value="47">Chapter 47: Personhood Theory</option>
<option value="48">Chapter 48: Utilitarian Priorities</option>
<option value="49">Chapter 49: Prior Information</option>
<option value="50">Chapter 50: Self Centeredness</option>
<option value="51">Chapter 51: Title Redacted, Pt 1</option>
<option value="52">Chapter 52: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 2</option>
<option value="53">Chapter 53: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 3</option>
<option value="54">Chapter 54: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 4</option>
<option value="55">Chapter 55: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 5</option>
<option value="56">Chapter 56: TSPE, Constrained Optimization, Pt 6</option>
<option value="57">Chapter 57: TSPE, Constrained Cognition, Pt 7</option>
<option value="58">Chapter 58: TSPE, Constrained Cognition, Pt 8</option>
<option value="59">Chapter 59: TSPE, Curiosity, Pt 9</option>
<option value="60">Chapter 60: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Pt 10</option>
<option value="61">Chapter 61: TSPE, Secrecy and Openness, Pt 11</option>
<option value="62">Chapter 62: The Stanford Prison Experiment, Final</option>
<option value="63">Chapter 63: TSPE, Aftermaths</option>
<option value="64">Chapter 64: Omake Files 4, Alternate Parallels</option>
<option value="65">Chapter 65: Contagious Lies</option>
<option value="66">Chapter 66: Self Actualization, Pt 1</option>
<option value="67">Chapter 67: Self Actualization, Pt 2</option>
<option value="68">Chapter 68: Self Actualization, Pt 3</option>
<option value="69">Chapter 69: Self Actualization, Pt 4</option>
<option value="70">Chapter 70: Self Actualization, Pt 5</option>
<option value="71">Chapter 71: Self Actualization, Pt 6</option>
<option value="72">Chapter 72: SA, Plausible Deniability, Pt 7</option>
<option value="73">Chapter 73: SA, The Sacred and the Mundane, Pt 8</option>
<option value="74">Chapter 74: SA, Escalation of Conflicts, Pt 9</option>
<option value="75">Chapter 75: Self Actualization Final, Responsibility</option>
<option value="76">Chapter 76: Interlude with the Confessor: Sunk Costs</option>
<option value="77">Chapter 77: SA, Aftermaths: Surface Appearances</option>
<option value="78">Chapter 78: Taboo Tradeoffs Prelude: Cheating</option>
<option value="79">Chapter 79: Taboo Tradeoffs, Pt 1</option>
<option value="80">Chapter 80: Taboo Tradeoffs, Pt 2, The Horns Effect</option>
<option value="81">Chapter 81: Taboo Tradeoffs, Pt 3</option>
<option value="82">Chapter 82: Taboo Tradeoffs, Final</option>
<option value="83">Chapter 83: Taboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath 1</option>
<option value="84">Chapter 84: Taboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath 2</option>
<option value="85">Chapter 85: Taboo Tradeoffs, Aftermath 3, Distance</option>
<option value="86">Chapter 86: Multiple Hypothesis Testing</option>
<option value="87">Chapter 87: Hedonic Awareness</option>
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