diff --git a/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-gc.h b/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-gc.h
index 92f786dde3ba2..3e4d2086beab5 100644
--- a/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-gc.h
+++ b/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-gc.h
@@ -716,6 +716,8 @@ struct _SgenMajorCollector {
 	gboolean (*ptr_is_from_pinned_alloc) (char *ptr);
 	void (*report_pinned_memory_usage) (void);
 	size_t (*get_num_major_sections) (void);
+	size_t (*get_min_live_major_sections) (void);
+	size_t (*get_max_last_major_survived_sections) (void);
 	size_t (*get_num_empty_blocks) (void);
 	size_t (*get_bytes_survived_last_sweep) (void);
 	gboolean (*handle_gc_param) (const char *opt);
diff --git a/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-marksweep.c b/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-marksweep.c
index ce641805010bb..1767d4712def1 100644
--- a/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-marksweep.c
+++ b/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-marksweep.c
@@ -1524,6 +1524,7 @@ static size_t *sweep_num_blocks;
 
 static volatile size_t num_major_sections_before_sweep;
 static volatile size_t num_major_sections_freed_in_sweep;
+static volatile size_t num_major_sections_survived_in_sweep;
 
 static void
 sgen_worker_clear_free_block_lists (WorkerData *worker)
@@ -1707,6 +1708,7 @@ ensure_block_is_checked_for_sweeping (guint32 block_index, gboolean wait, gboole
 
 		/* FIXME: Do we need the heap boundaries while we do nursery collections? */
 		update_heap_boundaries_for_block (block);
+		SGEN_ATOMIC_ADD_P (num_major_sections_survived_in_sweep, 1);
 	} else {
 		/*
 		 * Blocks without live objects are removed from the
@@ -1842,6 +1844,7 @@ major_sweep (void)
 
 	num_major_sections_before_sweep = num_major_sections;
 	num_major_sections_freed_in_sweep = 0;
+	num_major_sections_survived_in_sweep = 0;
 
 	SGEN_ASSERT (0, !sweep_job, "We haven't finished the last sweep?");
 	if (concurrent_sweep) {
@@ -2319,6 +2322,28 @@ get_num_major_sections (void)
 	return num_major_sections;
 }
 
+// Conservative values for computing trigger size, without needing concurrent sweep to finish
+// As concurrent sweep job advances in execution, these values get closer to the real value.
+// This contains at least the number of blocks determined to be live by sweep job (which increases
+// as sweep progresses) plus any new blocks allocated by the application.
+static size_t
+get_min_live_major_sections (void)
+{
+	// Note that num_major_sections gets decremented for each freed block, so to obtain the real block count
+	// we would need to add back num_major_sections_freed_in_sweep, but this is racy so we are being conservative.
+	if (num_major_sections > num_major_sections_before_sweep)
+		return num_major_sections_survived_in_sweep + (num_major_sections - num_major_sections_before_sweep);
+	else
+		return num_major_sections_survived_in_sweep;
+}
+
+static size_t
+get_max_last_major_survived_sections (void)
+{
+	// num_major_sections_freed_in_sweep increases as sweep progresses.
+	return num_major_sections_before_sweep - num_major_sections_freed_in_sweep;
+}
+
 static size_t
 get_num_empty_blocks (void)
 {
@@ -2886,6 +2911,8 @@ sgen_marksweep_init_internal (SgenMajorCollector *collector, gboolean is_concurr
 	collector->ptr_is_from_pinned_alloc = ptr_is_from_pinned_alloc;
 	collector->report_pinned_memory_usage = major_report_pinned_memory_usage;
 	collector->get_num_major_sections = get_num_major_sections;
+	collector->get_min_live_major_sections = get_min_live_major_sections;
+	collector->get_max_last_major_survived_sections = get_max_last_major_survived_sections;
 	collector->get_num_empty_blocks = get_num_empty_blocks;
 	collector->get_bytes_survived_last_sweep = get_bytes_survived_last_sweep;
 	collector->handle_gc_param = major_handle_gc_param;
diff --git a/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-memory-governor.c b/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-memory-governor.c
index 7d98d96c710c5..487a0e418ad7f 100644
--- a/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-memory-governor.c
+++ b/src/mono/mono/sgen/sgen-memory-governor.c
@@ -130,6 +130,20 @@ sgen_memgov_calculate_minor_collection_allowance (void)
 	}
 }
 
+// This can be called while sweep is running to determine earlier if there is so much memory growth
+// that we know we will require a GC once sweep finishes.
+static gboolean
+sgen_need_major_collection_conservative (void)
+{
+	size_t min_heap_size = sgen_los_memory_usage + sgen_major_collector.get_min_live_major_sections () * sgen_major_collector.section_size;
+
+	size_t max_last_collection_heap_size = last_collection_los_memory_usage + sgen_major_collector.get_max_last_major_survived_sections () * sgen_major_collector.section_size;
+	size_t max_allowance = GDOUBLE_TO_SIZE (max_last_collection_heap_size * SGEN_DEFAULT_ALLOWANCE_HEAP_SIZE_RATIO);
+	max_allowance = MAX (max_allowance, GDOUBLE_TO_SIZE (MIN_MINOR_COLLECTION_ALLOWANCE));
+
+	return min_heap_size > max_allowance;
+}
+
 static size_t
 get_heap_size (void)
 {
@@ -184,9 +198,11 @@ sgen_need_major_collection (mword space_needed, gboolean *forced)
 		return FALSE;
 	}
 
-	/* FIXME: This is a cop-out.  We should have some way of figuring this out. */
-	if (!sgen_major_collector.have_swept ())
+	if (!sgen_major_collector.have_swept ()) {
+		if (sgen_need_major_collection_conservative ())
+			return TRUE;
 		return FALSE;
+	}
 
 	if (space_needed > sgen_memgov_available_free_space ())
 		return TRUE;