Improving accuracy of age estimates for insect evidence — calibration of physiological age at emergence (k) using insect size but without “k versus size” model
Postmortem interval may be estimated based on the age of insect evidence collected on a death scene. Reference data that are used in such estimation frequently comprise thermal summation constant (i.e. k), which is equal to the insect age upon completion of immature development expressed in accumulated degree-days or degree-hours (ADD or ADH). Essentially, k is a central point of an insect group and it may poorly represent insect evidence that is near the limits of variation for the group. Accordingly, it was postulated to calibrate k for particular insect evidence and insect size and sex were found to be useful for this purpose in some of the species. However, the calibration is only possible by using the model that correlates k with insect size. Since very few such models were published, this lack of data limits the calibration of k in forensic casework. In this article, we develop a formula that is useful for the calibration of k without the use of “k versus size” model (and related datasets). The formula uses k from the general thermal summation model for a species (with its standard error), size range for the species (retrieved from entomology literature), and size measurements for particular insect evidence. The calibration of k with the formula was validated using the Creophilus maxillosus (Coleoptera: Staphylinidae) and Necrodes littoralis (Coleoptera: Silphidae) datasets. It was particularly useful while analyzing unusually small and large insects, in case of which the formula reduced the inaccuracy of k from the general model on average by ~25 ADD in C. maxillosus and ~40 ADD in N. littoralis. We discuss the limitations and prospects of the calibration protocol that employs the formula.
You can access the full paper here: Improving accuracy of age estimates for insect evidence—calibration of physiological age at emergence (k) using insect size but without “k versus size” model
This project is a bit of an outlier compared to the others. I like to joke that even I’m not entirely sure if it’s a success — because I suspect that anyone who calls it brilliant just didn’t fully understand it! It’s really that complex. It was also the last project where my R scripts were, let’s say, less than organized. I finally decided that perhaps a bit of tidiness wouldn’t hurt — after all, even the most complex models deserve a clean home.
The data used in this project were generously provided by the authors of other studies. You can access the original sources here:
- Size at emergence improves accuracy of age estimates in forensically-useful beetle Creophilus maxillosus L. (Staphylinidae)
- Estimation of physiological age at emergence based on traits of the forensically useful adult carrion beetle Necrodes littoralis L. (Silphidae)
Due to data-sharing agreements and the sensitivity of the information, I am unable to share the datasets directly. These datasets were used with permission, and all analyses were conducted in accordance with the respective data-sharing agreements.