Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the vectors of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever, and Zika viruses, the most important arboviruses globally. These vectors are present across broad regions of the United States, but their spatiotemporal distribution is dynamic and not well understood. Data are limited and current models based on those data have not been evaluated on external data. Evaluating model-based, county-level forecasts on future data can help clarify model accuracy and utility, the seasonal and geographical dynamics of these species, and key directions for future research. These advances can contribute to improved preparedness for arboviral invasion in the U.S. and in other regions where Aedes suitability may be limited and changing.
Challenge
This is an open forecasting challenge to predict the monthly presence of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in a subset of U.S. counties during the 2019 and 2020 calendar years. The forecasting targets are described on the Targets page. The subset of counties are listed on the Data-2019 and Data-2020 pages along with historical data for each county. Participation guidelines are described on the Participation page and evaluation criteria are described on the Evaluation page.
Timeline - 2019
- Project announcement and data release: February 4, 2019.
- Data release completed: March 1, 2019.
- Registration deadline: Teams may register up to Wednesday, March 27, 2019.
- Forecast deadlines: The first forecast should be for April, 2019 and is due on March 31, 2019 at 11:59 Eastern Standard Time (UTC−05:00). Forecasts for May through December are due at 11:59 EST on the final day of the preceding month (i.e. the 30th or 31st) with the last forecast due on November 30, 2019 (forecast for December, 2019).
- Forecast evaluation: Early 2020, as soon as final surveillance data for 2019 are available.
Timeline - 2020
- Project announcement and data release: May 1, 2020.
- Data release completed: May 19, 2020
- Registration deadline: Teams may register up to Wednesday, May 27, 2020.
- Forecast deadlines: The first forecast should be for June, 2020 and is due on May 31, 2020 at 11:59 Eastern Standard Time (UTC−05:00). Forecasts for June through December are due at 11:59 EST on the final day of the preceding month (i.e. the 30th or 31st) with the last forecast due on November 30, 2020 (forecast for December, 2020).
- Forecast evaluation: Early 2021, as soon as final surveillance data for 2020 are available.
This challenge is hosted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Division of Vector-Borne Diseases and the CDC Epidemic Prediction Initiative, in collaboration with the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists and the Centers of Excellence in Vector-Borne Diseases:
Midwest Center of Excellence in Vector-Borne Diseases
Northeast Regional Center for Excellence in Vector Borne Diseases
Pacific Southwest Center of Excellence in Vector-Borne Diseases