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facebookprophet

Predicting the future prices of Avocado using Facebook prophet.

Prophet is an open source tool used for time series forecasting.

  • You must install fbprophet package as follows: pip install fbprophet
  • If you encounter an error, try: conda install -c conda-forge fbprophet

Understanding the intuition behind facebook prophet:

  • Prophet is an open source software released by Facebook's core Data Science team.
  • Prophet is a procedure for forecasting time series data based on an additive model where non-linear treends are fit with yearly, weekly, and daily seasonality, plus holiday effects.
  • Prophet works best with time series that have strong seasonal effects and several seasons of historical data.
  • For more information, please check this out:
  • Prophet implements an additive regression model with four elements:
    • A piecewise linear, Prophet automatically picks up change points in the data and identifies any change in trnds.
    • A yearly seasonal component modeled using Fourier series.
    • A weekly seasonal component.
    • A holiday list that can be manually provided.

Facebook Prophet Features

  • Accurate and Fast
    • Facebook teams uses Prophet for accurate forecasting and planning.
    • Prophet can generate results in seconds.
  • Automatic
    • No need to perform data preprocessing.
    • Prophet works with missing data with several outliers.
  • Domain knowledge integration
    • users can tweakforecast by manually adding domain specific knowledge.

A few model specification during training:

The data should consist of only two columns one date column named as "ds" and other the target column named as "y".

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