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@article{dennison_large_2014,
title = {Large wildfire trends in the western {United} {States}, 1984–2011},
volume = {41},
issn = {0094-8276, 1944-8007},
url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059576},
doi = {10.1002/2014GL059576},
abstract = {Abstract
We used a database capturing large wildfires ({\textgreater} 405 ha) in the western U.S. to document regional trends in fire occurrence, total fire area, fire size, and day of year of ignition for 1984–2011. Over the western U.S. and in a majority of ecoregions, we found significant, increasing trends in the number of large fires and/or total large fire area per year. Trends were most significant for southern and mountain ecoregions, coinciding with trends toward increased drought severity. For all ecoregions combined, the number of large fires increased at a rate of seven fires per year, while total fire area increased at a rate of 355 km
2
per year. Continuing changes in climate, invasive species, and consequences of past fire management, added to the impacts of larger, more frequent fires, will drive further disruptions to fire regimes of the western U.S. and other fire‐prone regions of the world.
,
Key Points
Number of large fires and large fire area have increased across the western U.S.
Fire activity trends were most significant in southern and mountain ecoregions
Increased fire in these ecoregions coincided with increased drought severity},
language = {en},
number = {8},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
author = {Dennison, Philip E. and Brewer, Simon C. and Arnold, James D. and Moritz, Max A.},
month = apr,
year = {2014},
pages = {2928--2933},
}

@article{weber_spatiotemporal_2020,
title = {Spatiotemporal {Trends} in {Wildfires} across the {Western} {United} {States} (1950–2019)},
volume = {12},
issn = {2072-4292},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/12/18/2959},
doi = {10.3390/rs12182959},
abstract = {Wildfire regimes are changing across the globe with several ecosystems witnessing more frequent fires across longer fire seasons. The western United States is one such region. The NASA RECOVER Historic Fires Database (HFD) contains all documented wildfires across the western United States occurring between 1950 and 2019 (n = 55,566). This study analyzed the spatiotemporal patterns of these wildfires using ArcGIS Pro Geographic Information System (GIS) software to characterize changes in fire frequency, size, and severity over time. Analysis of annual fire frequency and acres burned reveals a near exponential growth in fire frequency (R2 = 0.71, P {\textless} 0.001) and size (R2 = 0.67, P {\textless} 0.001) since 1950. A comparison of mean and median acres burned annually suggests the occurrence of mega-fires (wildfires burning more than 100,000 acres) is also increasing. To illustrate this, this study found the mean size of fires occurring in the decade of the 1950s was 1204 acres while in the most recent decade (2010–2019) mean fire size has more than doubled, reaching an average of 3474 acres. The trend in fire severity between 2001 and 2017 used 365 Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) layers calculated using Landsat or Sentinel-2 satellite imagery. Results suggest fire severity has remained relatively stable in light of increasing fire frequency and size, however more research is required to more fully understand changes in fire severity. The results of this study and other related studies are important as they provide useful information to land managers and policy makers regarding the changing wildfire regime currently being witnessed across the western United States.},
language = {en},
number = {18},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
journal = {Remote Sensing},
author = {Weber, Keith T. and Yadav, Rituraj},
month = sep,
year = {2020},
pages = {2959},
file = {Full Text:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/QNRZ5L4F/Weber and Yadav - 2020 - Spatiotemporal Trends in Wildfires across the West.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{radeloff_rapid_2018,
title = {Rapid growth of the {US} wildland-urban interface raises wildfire risk},
volume = {115},
url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.1718850115},
doi = {10.1073/pnas.1718850115},
abstract = {The wildland-urban interface (WUI) is the area where houses and wildland vegetation meet or intermingle, and where wildfire problems are most pronounced. Here we report that the WUI in the United States grew rapidly from 1990 to 2010 in terms of both number of new houses (from 30.8 to 43.4 million; 41\% growth) and land area (from 581,000 to 770,000 km2; 33\% growth), making it the fastest-growing land use type in the conterminous United States. The vast majority of new WUI areas were the result of new housing (97\%), not related to an increase in wildland vegetation. Within the perimeter of recent wildfires (1990–2015), there were 286,000 houses in 2010, compared with 177,000 in 1990. Furthermore, WUI growth often results in more wildfire ignitions, putting more lives and houses at risk. Wildfire problems will not abate if recent housing growth trends continue.},
number = {13},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
author = {Radeloff, Volker C. and Helmers, David P. and Kramer, H. Anu and Mockrin, Miranda H. and Alexandre, Patricia M. and Bar-Massada, Avi and Butsic, Van and Hawbaker, Todd J. and Martinuzzi, Sebastián and Syphard, Alexandra D. and Stewart, Susan I.},
month = mar,
year = {2018},
note = {Publisher: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
pages = {3314--3319},
file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/MMI5QKUV/Radeloff et al. - 2018 - Rapid growth of the US wildland-urban interface ra.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{hammer_wildlandurban_2007,
title = {Wildland–urban interface housing growth during the 1990s in {California}, {Oregon}, and {Washington}},
volume = {16},
issn = {1448-5516},
url = {https://www.publish.csiro.au/wf/WF05077},
doi = {10.1071/WF05077},
abstract = {In the present study, we examine housing growth in California, Oregon, and Washington in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), the area where homes and other structures abut or intermingle with wildland vegetation. We combine housing density information from the 1990 and 2000 USA censuses with land cover information from the 1992/93 National Land Cover Dataset to demarcate the location and extent of the WUI and its growth, both in terms of area and number of housing units during the 1990s. We overlay the WUI with coarse-scale fire regime condition class information to evaluate implications for wildland fire management. During the 1990s, WUI area in the three-state region increased by 5218 km2 (10.9\%) to nearly 53 000 km2 and the number of housing units in the WUI increased over 1 million units (17.6\%) and in 2000 encompassed 6.9 million units, 43\% of all housing in the region. Over a million new homes were constructed in the WUI, comprising 61\% of the new homes constructed in the region. By 2000, there was far more intermix WUI (75\% of the WUI area and 64\% of the WUI housing units) than interface WUI. Expansion of the WUI accounted for only 13\% of WUI housing unit growth and WUI that existed in 1990 encompassed 98\% of WUI housing units in 2000. In 2000, there were nearly 1.5 million WUI housing units in areas with 0–35-year fire return intervals and 3.4 million in areas with 35–100+ year fire return intervals. In both these fire regimes, the majority of WUI housing units (66\% and 90\% respectively) are in areas with a current condition outside the historic range of variability. Housing growth patterns in this three-state region are exacerbating wildland fire problems in the WUI. Any long-term solution to wildland fire issues in the western United States will have to address housing growth patterns. Using a consistent, nationally applicable assessment protocol, the present study reveals the vast extent of WUI in the west coast states and its growth in the 1990s, and provides a foundation for consistent monitoring efforts.},
language = {en},
number = {3},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
journal = {International Journal of Wildland Fire},
author = {Hammer, Roger B. and Radeloff, Volker C. and Fried, Jeremy S. and Stewart, Susan I.},
month = jul,
year = {2007},
note = {Publisher: CSIRO PUBLISHING},
pages = {255--265},
}

@book{thomas_costs_2017,
title = {The {Costs} and {Losses} of {Wildfires}: {A} {Literature} {Review}},
shorttitle = {The {Costs} and {Losses} of {Wildfires}},
abstract = {This report enumerates all possible costs of wildfire management and wildfire-related losses. It, further, compiles estimates or proposes methods for estimating the costs and losses identified. These estimates can be used for C+NVC (cost plus net value change) modeling, and can also be used to produce an estimate of the ‘economic burden’ of wildfire for the United States. The economic burden represents the impact wildfire has on the U.S. economy. Tracking the economic burden of wildfire could be used to assess return-on-investment into wildfire interventions. The economic burden is decomposed into: 1. intervention costs; 2. prevention/preparedness, mitigation, suppression, and cross-cutting; 2. and into direct and indirect wildfire related (net) losses. The annualized economic burden from wildfire is estimated to be between \$71.1 billion to \$347.8 billion (\$2016 US). Annualized costs are estimated to range from \$7.6 billion to \$62.8 billion. Annualized losses are estimated to range from \$63.5 billion to \$285.0 billion.},
author = {Thomas, Douglas and Butry, David and Gilbert, Stanley and Webb, David and Fung, Juan},
month = nov,
year = {2017},
doi = {10.6028/NIST.SP.1215},
file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/SQCAEQBW/Thomas et al. - 2017 - The Costs and Losses of Wildfires A Literature Re.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@incollection{manzello_wildfires_2020,
address = {Cham},
title = {Wildfires and {WUI} {Fire} {Fatalities}},
isbn = {978-3-319-51727-8},
url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/978-3-319-51727-8_92-1},
language = {en},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
booktitle = {Encyclopedia of {Wildfires} and {Wildland}-{Urban} {Interface} ({WUI}) {Fires}},
publisher = {Springer International Publishing},
author = {Haynes, Katharine and Short, Karen and Xanthopoulos, Gavriil and Viegas, Domingos and Ribeiro, Luis Mário and Blanchi, Raphaele},
editor = {Manzello, Samuel L.},
year = {2020},
doi = {10.1007/978-3-319-51727-8_92-1},
pages = {1--16},
file = {Haynes et al. - 2020 - Wildfires and WUI Fire Fatalities.pdf:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/Q89J7X2H/Haynes et al. - 2020 - Wildfires and WUI Fire Fatalities.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{noauthor_national_nodate,
title = {National {Interagency} {Fire} {Center}, {InterAgencyFirePerimeterHistory} {All} {Years} {View}},
url = {https://data-nifc.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/nifc::wfigs-2022-wildland-fire-perimeters-to-date/about},
abstract = {This site has been created to share authoritative content developed by partners of the National Interagency Fire Center.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
file = {Snapshot:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/2U6EVCPY/about.html:text/html},
}

@article{chen_california_2022,
title = {California wildfire spread derived using {VIIRS} satellite observations and an object-based tracking system},
volume = {9},
copyright = {2022 The Author(s)},
issn = {2052-4463},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-022-01343-0},
doi = {10.1038/s41597-022-01343-0},
abstract = {Changing wildfire regimes in the western US and other fire-prone regions pose considerable risks to human health and ecosystem function. However, our understanding of wildfire behavior is still limited by a lack of data products that systematically quantify fire spread, behavior and impacts. Here we develop a novel object-based system for tracking the progression of individual fires using 375 m Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite active fire detections. At each half-daily time step, fire pixels are clustered according to their spatial proximity, and are either appended to an existing active fire object or are assigned to a new object. This automatic system allows us to update the attributes of each fire event, delineate the fire perimeter, and identify the active fire front shortly after satellite data acquisition. Using this system, we mapped the history of California fires during 2012–2020. Our approach and data stream may be useful for calibration and evaluation of fire spread models, estimation of near-real-time wildfire emissions, and as means for prescribing initial conditions in fire forecast models.},
language = {en},
number = {1},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
journal = {Scientific Data},
author = {Chen, Yang and Hantson, Stijn and Andela, Niels and Coffield, Shane R. and Graff, Casey A. and Morton, Douglas C. and Ott, Lesley E. and Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi and Smyth, Padhraic and Goulden, Michael L. and Randerson, James T.},
month = may,
year = {2022},
note = {Number: 1
Publisher: Nature Publishing Group},
keywords = {Fire ecology, Natural hazards},
pages = {249},
file = {Full Text PDF:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/5MKIBCMG/Chen et al. - 2022 - California wildfire spread derived using VIIRS sat.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@article{kuo_usda_nodate,
title = {{USDA} {Forest} {Service} {Fire} and {Aviation} {Management}},
language = {en},
author = {Kuo, Evans -FS},
file = {Kuo - USDA Forest Service Fire and Aviation Management.pdf:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/MDNSR4ZB/Kuo - USDA Forest Service Fire and Aviation Management.pdf:application/pdf},
}

@misc{noauthor_pysal_nodate,
title = {{PySAL}},
url = {https://pysal.org/},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
file = {PySAL:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/LN5X99AA/pysal.org.html:text/html},
}

@misc{noauthor_shapely_nodate,
title = {Shapely — {Shapely} 0 documentation},
url = {https://shapely.readthedocs.io/en/stable/},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
}

@misc{noauthor_geopandas_nodate,
title = {{GeoPandas} 0.dev+untagged — {GeoPandas} 0+untagged.50.gfb079bf.dirty documentation},
url = {https://geopandas.org/en/stable/},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
}

@misc{noauthor_2d_nodate,
title = {{2D}, {3D} \& {4D} {GIS} {Mapping} {Software} {\textbar} {ArcGIS} {Pro}},
url = {https://www.esri.com/en-us/arcgis/products/arcgis-pro/overview},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
}

@misc{noauthor_welcome_nodate,
title = {Welcome to the {QGIS} project!},
url = {https://qgis.org/en/site/},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
file = {Welcome to the QGIS project!:/Users/katrinasharonin/Zotero/storage/WFVRWRYU/site.html:text/html},
}

@misc{signell_veda_2023,
title = {{VEDA} {Documentation} - {Get} {Fire} {Perimeters} from an {OGC} {API}},
url = {https://nasa-impact.github.io/veda-docs/notebooks/tutorials/mapping-fires.html},
abstract = {Explore data available through an OGC API, and how to filter data temporally, spatially, and by property.},
language = {en},
urldate = {2024-01-10},
author = {Signell, Julia, Tempest McCabe},
month = may,
year = {2023},
}
14 changes: 5 additions & 9 deletions .ipynb_checkpoints/paper-checkpoint.md
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Expand Up @@ -11,7 +11,7 @@ authors:
equal-contrib: true
affiliation: 1
- name: Tempest McCabe
equal-contrib: false # (This is how you can denote equal contributions between multiple authors)
equal-contrib: false
affiliation: 1
affiliations:
- name: NASA Goddard Space and Flight Center
Expand All @@ -30,7 +30,7 @@ Overall, FEDS-PEC optimizes evaluation processes, empowering researchers and ana

# Statement of need

Over the past two decades, wildfires in the Western U.S. have increased in severity, frequency, and size [Dennison et al, Weber et al]. Paired with the expansion of the wildland-urban interface [Readeloff et al, Hammer et al], estimated national wildfire damage costs on an annualized basis range from $63.5 billion to $285.0 billion [Thomas et al]. In addition, between 1901-2011, 674 civilian wildfire fatalities occurred in North America [Haynes et al USDA]. California wildfires have claimed 150 lives over the past 5 years alone [CAL FIRE top 20] and over 30% of total U.S. wildland firefighter fatalities from 1910-2010 [Haynes et al USDA].
Over the past two decades, wildfires in the Western U.S. have increased in severity, frequency, and size @dennison_large_2014, @weber_spatiotemporal_2020. Paired with the expansion of the wildland-urban interface [Readeloff et al, Hammer et al], estimated national wildfire damage costs on an annualized basis range from $63.5 billion to $285.0 billion [Thomas et al]. In addition, between 1901-2011, 674 civilian wildfire fatalities occurred in North America [Haynes et al USDA]. California wildfires have claimed 150 lives over the past 5 years alone [CAL FIRE top 20] and over 30% of total U.S. wildland firefighter fatalities from 1910-2010 [Haynes et al USDA].

With the growing risk to property and livelihood in the U.S., precise and efficient methods of tracking active fire spread are critical for supporting near real-time firefighting response and wildfire management decision-making. Several map-making methods are practiced by firefighting agencies to track fire size and location. Primary methods include GPS-walking, GPS flight, and infrared image interpretation [NIFC 2022 Wildfire Perimeter Map Methods]. The latter method, infrared imaging (IR), is one of the most widely demanded due to daily data delivery for routine briefings and synoptic coverage; between 2013 and 2017, yearly IR requests for the USDA Forest Service’s National Infrared Operations Program (NIROPS) increased from about 1.4k to just over 3.0k [USFS NIROPS Poster]. However, aerial infrared imaging methods involve several acquisition challenges, including cost, sensor operation restrictions, limited ability to meet coverage demand, and latency.
Among NASA’s existing projects and tools, the development of thermal remote-sensing via satellites stands as a major potential augmentation to wildfire operations and mapping. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua and Terra satellites, and the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard S-NPP and NOAA 20 (formally known as JPSS-1), represent the primary tools for NASA’s wildfire remote-sensing initiative.
Expand Down Expand Up @@ -89,7 +89,8 @@ FEDS-PEC requires user inputs of time interval, region, and dataset settings to
All calculation formulas can be viewed in `Output_Calculation.py` as python methods.

## Logic and Workflow
![Figure 2: Logic Diagram](images/FEDS_PEC_Logic.drawio (2).png)

![Figure 2: Logic Diagram](images/FEDS_PEC_Logic.drawio (2).png){ height=200px }

## User Set-up Guide

Expand All @@ -109,12 +110,7 @@ Citations to entries in paper.bib should be in
format.

If you want to cite a software repository URL (e.g. something on GitHub without a preferred
citation) then you can do it with the example BibTeX entry below for @fidgit.

For a quick reference, the following citation commands can be used:
- `@author:2001` -> "Author et al. (2001)"
- `[@author:2001]` -> "(Author et al., 2001)"
- `[@author1:2001; @author2:2001]` -> "(Author1 et al., 2001; Author2 et al., 2002)"
citation) then you can do it with the example BibTeX entry below for @hammer_wildlandurban_2007.

# Acknowledgements

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