[CI] PValueScoreTests testLowPValueScore failing

[mark-vieira]

This has failed several times already today and reproduces locally.

Build scan:
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/s/eplgbtsrw3qzs/tests/:x-pack:plugin:ml:test/org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.aggs.heuristic.PValueScoreTests/testLowPValueScore

Reproduction line:
./gradlew ':x-pack:plugin:ml:test' --tests "org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.aggs.heuristic.PValueScoreTests.testLowPValueScore" -Dtests.seed=7D4A5C79381236D9 -Dtests.locale=es-PY -Dtests.timezone=Etc/UCT -Druntime.java=16 -Dtests.fips.enabled=true

Applicable branches:
master

Reproduces locally?:
Yes

Failure history:
https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/scans/tests?tests.container=org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.aggs.heuristic.PValueScoreTests&tests.test=testLowPValueScore

Failure excerpt:

java.lang.AssertionError: 
Expected: (a value less than or equal to <5.0> and a value equal to or greater than <0.0>)
     but: a value less than or equal to <5.0> <708.3964185322641> was greater than <5.0>

  at __randomizedtesting.SeedInfo.seed([7D4A5C79381236D9:127D0D52AF761717]:0)
  at org.hamcrest.MatcherAssert.assertThat(MatcherAssert.java:18)
  at org.junit.Assert.assertThat(Assert.java:956)
  at org.junit.Assert.assertThat(Assert.java:923)
  at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.aggs.heuristic.PValueScoreTests.testLowPValueScore(PValueScoreTests.java:91)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke0(NativeMethodAccessorImpl.java:-2)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.NativeMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(NativeMethodAccessorImpl.java:78)
  at jdk.internal.reflect.DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.invoke(DelegatingMethodAccessorImpl.java:43)
  at java.lang.reflect.Method.invoke(Method.java:567)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.invoke(RandomizedRunner.java:1758)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$8.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:946)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$9.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:982)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$10.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:996)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleSetupTeardownChained$1.evaluate(TestRuleSetupTeardownChained.java:49)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:45)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleThreadAndTestName$1.evaluate(TestRuleThreadAndTestName.java:48)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:64)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:47)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:375)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.forkTimeoutingTask(ThreadLeakControl.java:824)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$3.evaluate(ThreadLeakControl.java:475)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner.runSingleTest(RandomizedRunner.java:955)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$5.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:840)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$6.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:891)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.RandomizedRunner$7.evaluate(RandomizedRunner.java:902)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.AbstractBeforeAfterRule$1.evaluate(AbstractBeforeAfterRule.java:45)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleStoreClassName$1.evaluate(TestRuleStoreClassName.java:41)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule$1.evaluate(NoShadowingOrOverridesOnMethodsRule.java:40)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleAssertionsRequired$1.evaluate(TestRuleAssertionsRequired.java:53)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleMarkFailure$1.evaluate(TestRuleMarkFailure.java:47)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreAfterMaxFailures.java:64)
  at org.apache.lucene.util.TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites$1.evaluate(TestRuleIgnoreTestSuites.java:54)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.rules.StatementAdapter.evaluate(StatementAdapter.java:36)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl$StatementRunner.run(ThreadLeakControl.java:375)
  at com.carrotsearch.randomizedtesting.ThreadLeakControl.lambda$forkTimeoutingTask$0(ThreadLeakControl.java:831)
  at java.lang.Thread.run(Thread.java:831)

[elasticmachine]

Pinging @elastic/ml-core (Team:ML)

[mark-vieira]

I've muted this on master.

[mark-vieira]

Had this fail for me on a PR on 7.x as well. That did not reproduced but I've muted on that branch as well anyhow.

[mayya-sharipova]

testHighPValueScore also reproducibly fails for me on master and 7.x with:

./gradlew ':x-pack:plugin:ml:test' --tests "org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.aggs.heuristic.PValueScoreTests.testHighPValueScore" \
  -Dtests.seed=A156E1F73D573053 \
  -Dtests.locale=sr-CS \
  -Dtests.timezone=Europe/Vatican \
  -Druntime.java=16

Build scan: https://gradle-enterprise.elastic.co/s/d7ah7wmjhdw3q

java.lang.AssertionError:
  | Expected: a value equal to or greater than <700.0> |
  | but: <-0.0> was less than <700.0>

at __randomizedtesting.SeedInfo.seed([A156E1F73D573053:20276E0F45566CBA]:0)	
at org.hamcrest.MatcherAssert.assertThat(MatcherAssert.java:18)	
at org.junit.Assert.assertThat(Assert.java:956)	
at org.junit.Assert.assertThat(Assert.java:923)	
at org.elasticsearch.xpack.ml.aggs.heuristic.PValueScoreTests.testHighPValueScore(PValueScoreTests.java:78)

but I see that PR #75629 targets testHighPValueScore as well, so I am not going to mute the test for now.

[mayya-sharipova]

testHighPValueScore has also been muted on master and 7.x, awaiting a fix from PR #75629